My concern is growing for a high-impact, significant blizzard across portions of the Northeast. Blizzard Warnings are live from Delaware through New York City and into southern Connecticut. Winter Storm Warnings run from Virginia into New England. The models have converged and they're not being subtle about it.
Here's where things stand this morning.
The Track
All week the question was whether this system slides out to sea for a glancing blow or tracks close enough to bury the I-95 corridor. That question has been answered.
The surface low forms near Cape Hatteras Sunday morning, then rips northeast up the Mid-Atlantic seaboard Sunday night. By early Monday it's sitting near the 40N/70W benchmark, about 80 miles southeast of Nantucket. If you follow East Coast winter weather at all, you know that's the textbook position for a major Northeast snowstorm.
The central pressure is forecast to drop 25 to 30 millibars in 12 hours. That's bombogenesis.
There are still minor model differences. The GFS is slightly farther west and stronger. The ECMWF and AI guidance sit just east of that. Those differences affect whether Philly gets 8 inches or 14, but the overall story is the same everywhere you look. Major to extreme impacts from Maryland to Maine, including Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston. Ensemble means are showing snow totals approaching 20 inches in spots. There are still details to figure out, but the broad signal is clear.
Snow Totals
The gradients on this storm are going to be sharp. One county over could be a totally different experience.
Coastal New Jersey through Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. This is the bullseye. 14 to 24 inches widespread, localized amounts approaching two feet. The latest NAM 3km is showing extremely impressive forcing for a slow-moving snow band across New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania with snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour. If that verifies, we're talking 24 to 36 inches in the hardest-hit corridor. That's not a guarantee, but the fact that hi-res guidance is even putting those numbers on the table tells you how much potential this system has. NWS has Blizzard Warnings up here. 13 to 18 inches, gusts to 55 mph, visibility below a quarter mile.
I-95 corridor, D.C. to New York. D.C. gets 3 to 6 inches. Philadelphia is in the 10 to 16 inch range per NWS Mount Holly. New York City is under a Blizzard Warning with 13 to 18 inches. First Blizzard Warning for the city in almost a decade.
Hudson Valley and interior New England. 10 to 14 inches, but it drops off fast going northwest. Central Vermont could see next to nothing. This storm hugs the coast.
Boston and southern New England. This forecast has been trending up over the last 24 hours. NWS Boston has a Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Local forecasters are putting first-call maps at 6 to 12 inches for metro, with a foot or more on the South Shore and Cape. WPC probabilities for over 12 inches run 40 to 80 percent across Rhode Island and eastern Mass.
Central Appalachians. Don't sleep on this. Synoptic snow moves in late tonight on westerly flow, then northwest upslope fires up Sunday night as the coastal low bombs out. Allegheny and Laurel Highlands looking at 6 to 12 inches storm total.
One thing to keep in mind with accumulation. Temperatures will be marginal early on. We're coming off a warmer airmass and surface temps will be above freezing for a lot of areas when the snow first starts falling Sunday afternoon. That's going to limit initial accumulation rates. Some of the snow melts on contact with pavement, especially during daylight hours.
But once the sun goes down and the cyclone deepens with stronger cold air advection at low levels, temps crash into the 20s across most of the region. No sun angle concerns, no melting. That's when rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour kick in on top of surfaces that are now cold enough to hold everything. The bulk of the accumulation happens in that overnight window. Don't let a slow start Sunday afternoon fool you into thinking this won't deliver.
Wind and Power Outages
Wind gusts of 50 to 70 mph along the coasts. Easily. Farther inland you're still looking at 40 to 50. NWS is putting Blizzard conditions in warnings, not watches, from the Jersey Shore through Long Island, NYC, and into southeast Mass. That means sustained winds over 35 with visibility below a quarter mile for three or more hours. If this holds, we're looking at a benchmark blizzard for portions of the Northeast.
Heavy wet snow on power lines plus those gusts is a bad combination. Power outages are a real concern with this one. The January storm dropped lighter, fluffier snow and power held up. This is different. If you lose power Sunday night while it's snowing 2 inches an hour and gusting to 50, that's a problem.
Coastal Flooding
Coastal flooding is a big concern at high tide. Strong onshore winds pushing against Sunday and Monday high tide cycles will produce moderate flooding from Delaware through Long Island and into eastern Mass. One to two feet of inundation possible in low-lying coastal areas. If you're in a flood-prone zone, know your tide schedules.
Timeline
Sunday morning. Precipitation develops across the Delmarva and eastern Virginia. Initially a mix in some spots. The coastal low is forming off the Carolinas.
Sunday afternoon into evening. Snow spreads up the I-95 corridor, reaches NYC by late afternoon, southern New England by evening. Winds ramp up. Conditions go downhill fast.
Sunday night into Monday morning. This is the worst of it. Rapid intensification offshore. Snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour. Blizzard conditions along the coast. Zero visibility in the heaviest bands. Both Monday commutes are going to be a mess.
Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Snow tapers off southwest to northeast as the low pulls toward Nova Scotia. Wind stays elevated through the day. Impacts linger into Tuesday morning, especially across southern New England where the storm exits last.
Prepare Today
Your window closes today. By tomorrow morning things start going downhill and they won't improve until Monday evening.
Charge everything. Have a plan for heat if the power goes out. Don't drive Monday. School closures will be widespread.
NWS will keep refining totals with each model run. A 50-mile shift still means the difference between 8 inches and 18 for some cities. Keep checking back.
Blizzard Warnings for New York City for the first time in almost a decade. Forty to 80 percent chance of a foot or more from coastal Jersey through eastern Mass. Gusts to 70 on the coast. Coastal flooding at high tide. All of this less than a month after the January storm.
Prepare today. Stay off the roads tomorrow night and Monday.
